Climate-Sensitive Early Warning System for the Dengue Virus and Its Transmitting Vector, with Community Action
Principal Investigator:
Yazenia Linares, Centro Meteorológico Provincial Habana-Artemisa-Mayabeque, Cuba
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2980-5120
Co-PI: Dr. C. Paulo Lázaro Ortiz Bultó. Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET), Cuba
Coordinating counterpart in Health: Madelaine Rivera Sánchez. Dirección Nacional de Vigilancia y Lucha Antivectorial del MINSAP, Cuba
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SAT-DENCLIM is an innovative bioclimatic early warning initiative designed to anticipate the risk of dengue by integrating climate, entomological, virological, epidemiological, and socio-environmental data. In light of the impact of climate change on the spread of vector-borne diseases in Latin America and the Caribbean, it proposes shifting from reactive responses to preventive management based on scientific evidence and proactive action.
Based on Bultó’s methodology, the system combines integrative indices, predictive models, advanced spatial analysis, and epidemiological surveillance to identify risk patterns and conditions favorable for dengue transmission. Its flexible design allows it to adapt to different territorial scales and strengthen the response capacity of health systems.
Initially implemented in Old Havana, Cuba, SAT-DENCLIM generates risk maps, alert levels, and one- to three-month forecasts, guiding preventive interventions in vulnerable areas. Notable results include the identification of climatic thresholds, the reduction of Aedes aegypti breeding sites and dengue cases, and the strengthening of coordination between institutions and communities.
With the support of the IAI and the Pan American Health Organization, SAT-DENCLIM is positioned as a regional climate intelligence platform applied to health, with the potential for replication across Latin America and the Caribbean.
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