Exploring associations between micro-level models of innovation diffusion and emerging macro-level adoption patterns

A micro-level agent-based model of innovation diffusion was developed that explicitly combines (a) an individual&rsquos perception of the advantages or relative utility derived from adoption, and (b) social influence from members of the individual&rsquos social network. The micro-model was used to simulate macro-level diffusion patterns emerging from different configurations of micro-model parameters. Micro-level simulation results matched very closely the adoption patterns predicted by the widely-used Bass macro-level model (Bass, 1969 [1]). For a portion of the domain, results from micro-simulations were consistent with aggregate-level adoption patterns reported in the literature. Induced Bass macro-level parameters and responded to changes in micro-parameters: (1) increased with the number of innovators and with the rate at which innovators are introduced (2) increased with the probability of rewiring in small-world networks, as the characteristic path length decreases and (3) an increase in the overall perceived utility of an innovation caused a corresponding increase in induced and values. Understanding micro to macro linkages can inform the design and assessment of marketing interventions on micro-variables&ndashor processes related to them&ndashto enhance adoption of future products or technologies.

Highlights

•We develop a microscopic model of processes influencing individual adoption behavior.
•Micro-level simulations match closely adoption curves predicted by the Bass model.
•Bass parameters for many actual adoptions can be induced by the microscopic model.
•We established linkages between micro-level parameters and innovation takeoff time.
•We illustrate use of the micro-model to assess outcomes of marketing interventions.