International migration, climate change, and network effects: A worldwide study

PROJECT INFORMATION

Principal investigator (PI): Paula Margaretic, Universidad de Chile (Fund Recipient Institution), Chile.
Contact – Email: paumargaretic@gmail.com 

Duration & amount: (July 2024 –  April 2026). USD 99,600 

Participating countries: Chile, Argentina 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Keywords: Climate-induced migration, fast-onset and slow-onset meteorological events, origin- and destination-network effects, neighboring countries 

This project aims to investigate two significant aspects of international migration. First, the project proposes a global framework (including 150 countries worldwide) to study the relationship between climate change and migration. Our dataset spans 30 years, from 1990 to 2017. To characterize countries, we include proxies for fast- and slow-onset meteorological events to measure the countries’ exposure to climate change and a large set of country-specific socioeconomic, demographic, health, political, and governance factors driving international migration. Second, the project analyzes the role of neighboring countries on migration flows. To identify neighboring countries, we consider geographical proximity and economic and cultural proximity between pairs of countries. 

The main contributions of this project are as follows. First, we include a broad set of environmental variables with global coverage, which allows us to incorporate climate change aspects into the migration analysis. Furthermore, since climate change impacts migration differently across countries, this study will enable the design of country-specific policies to manage climate-induced migration. Second, considering a large set of country-specific socioeconomic, political, and demographic characteristics will allow us to i) explore the contextual causes of migration and their dynamics, ii) disentangle the patterns distinguishing developed and developing economies through time, iii) quantify the feedback effects from socioeconomic shocks affecting migration and reversely. Third, we propose a methodology to predict the expected impact on migration of the two significant global shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian war. We will also project international migration flows assuming various simulated climate change patterns. Predicting migration is appealing as there is a significant lag in the migration data to be released. 

RESULTS

We first show that vulnerability to climate shocks affects the probability of migration. We also posit that the countries’ income levels and whether they are experiencing conflict moderate this effect. In particular, we observe that drier conditions lead to a higher probability of international migration and that its impact is more substantial when the country is in conflict. We also document that higher temperatures in the country of origin increase the probability of outmigration.

We document the presence of spatial autocorrelation in migration flows. Specifically, we observe positive and significant origin- and destination-dependence effects, with the former exhibiting greater strength than the latter. In our context, spatial dependence implies that more extensive observed migrations from an origin country A to a destination country Z may be accompanied by (1) increased migration flows from countries proximate to origin country A to destination country Z (origin-dependence effect) and (2) more extensive migration flows from origin country A to neighboring countries of destination country Z (destination-dependence effect). Indeed, 0.3 is our preliminary estimate for the origin-dependence effect, indicating significant migration spillovers across countries (1 being the maximum potential value for this normalized parameter). Our findings suggest that shocks persist in space, implying that even transient shocks may have enduring effects on international migration as they propagate across space. 

Investigating the role of conflict as an amplifying mechanism in the relationship between climate change and international migration, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, is an achievement that goes beyond our original objectives. It emerged when analyzing our initial results.

OUTREACH

Our research entails analyzing global migration flows and their relationship with climate change. These two themes are increasingly relevant in the international public discourse due to the significant increases in migration flows worldwide and the imminent climate change, whose effects we are already witnessing. 

 

In the coming decades, the impacts of rising temperatures are likely to escalate significantly. However, these consequences will not be evenly distributed across regions; some areas will bear a disproportionately heavier burden. Furthermore, countries vary widely in their capacities for mitigating and adapting to these changes, resulting in diverse impacts. Consequently, migration patterns are expected to concentrate in specific regions with the most pronounced effects. 

 

Understanding migration patterns is crucial for decision-makers, politicians, and civil society in the host and home countries. Migration requires an appropriate response in the host country regarding public policies to avoid consequences (such as labor competition and pressure on public services) and even to harness the advantages (such as diversity and economic growth). 

 

Climate change can exacerbate conflict in the home country and consequently drive migration. Thus, from a policy point of view, appropriate responses must be implemented to mitigate these adverse outcomes. 

 

Our initial findings indicate a reinforcing relationship between migration, drought conditions, and social conflict. These findings are significantly relevant for global decision-makers, NGOs, and other stakeholders, emphasizing the need to prioritize mitigation and adaptation efforts in vulnerable nations. Directing assistance in a targeted manner can tackle the complex challenges posed by these interconnected issues.

 

Additionally, our spatial modeling approach offers practical benefits for decision-makers grappling with the challenges of climate-induced migration. Using our models, countries can anticipate and respond more effectively to potential increases in migration from neighboring nations. In practice, governments can allocate resources, enact policies, and implement measures to manage migration flows before they reach critical levels. 

 

We have participated in specialized conferences on these topics to further develop and deepen our understanding of the subject and receive feedback on our procedures, methodology, and results. Our goal for the next steps of this project is for this research to reach a broader audience.

INVESTIGATORS

Principal Investigator 

Chile: 

Paula Margaretic, Universidad de Chile
E-mail: paumargaretic@gmail.com 

Co-Principal Investigators (co-PI) 

Chile 

Evangelina Dardati, Universidad Diego Portales
edardati@gmail.com 

STUDENTS

Pablo Fernandez , Universidad de San Andres
Argentina 

 
Daniela Roa, Universidad de Chile
Chile 

 
Matias Garibotti, Universidad de San Andres
Argentina
 

Ean Paredes, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez
Chile