1) The map shows for the first time how many people in the U.S. coastal states live in areas below 3 meters (red areas) or below 6 meters (yellow areas) above sea level. 2) Taking sediment cores. 3) A sediment core taken from a coastal lagoon in Sian Kaan, Mexico, containing a clastic layer probably deposited by a hurricane (Photo credit: J. Donnelly).o paleotempestológico; la escala es 1 km (foto por M. Peros).
3) Testigo de sedimentos de una laguna costera en Sian Kaan, México.
Contiene una capa clástica probablemente depositada por un huracán (foto por J. Donnelly)
Project information
Kam-biu Liu (kliu1@lsu.edu)
Louisiana State University, Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences (EE.UU.)
http://www.oceanography.lsu.edu/liu.shtm
http://www.citeulike.org/user/IAI/tag/crn2050
This project follows the research started in CRN 2050, with the same title.
Executive summary Outreach Investigators Students
Executive summary
The pan-Caribbean region, which includes Central America, the Caribbean islands, and the U.S. Gulf coast, is one of the most hurricane-ridden regions of the world. In spite of the enormous damage hurricanes often inflict when making landfall, it is poorly understood how hurricane activity in this region has varied over various timescales and what controls this variability both spatially and temporally. This project analyzes the long-term variability of Caribbean hurricane activity using paleotempestology, the study of past hurricane activities, by generating and analyzing ‘proxy data’ from coastal lagoon sediments, as well as isotopic records from stalagmites, tree-rings, and corals. Recently the geographical scope of this project has been expanded to include the Pacific coast of Mexico, a region where no paleotempestology study had been done. The addition of this new study region opens the door for a comparative study in hurricane activity between two major tropical cyclone basins—the Atlantic basin and the Eastern North Pacific basin.
Goals
* Produce proxy records of past hurricane activity in the Caribbean region and the Pacific coast of Mexico
* Understand the climate mechanisms that affect Caribbean hurricane activity by analyzing and modeling historical hurricane records and modern climate data
* Use past records to assess the risk of future hurricanes
Some results
A new coral-based proxy record of Atlantic sea surface temperatures for the period AD 1552-1991, the longest-ever established, shows that higher hurricane activity before 1550 and after 1750 coincides with warmer sea surfaces. When the Atlantic surface was cooler, there were fewer storms in the Caribbean.
The spatial distribution of lightning is different between cyclones that have mostly westward tracks (lower rates and more in the inner core, within 100 km of radius) than the ones with trajectories that re-curve and make landfall in the mainland. Cyclones in the latter category show more lightning in the outer bands (between 300 and 400 km from the eye) and in the quadrant closer to land.
Caribbean hurricane activity varies following climate patterns such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Proxy data and modeling reveal peaks in Atlantic hurricane activity during Medieval times (AD 900-1100), and again since 1980, can be explained by the prevalence of warmer sea surface temperatures and La Niña-like conditions.
New proxy records from Nicaragua and Belize reveal an anti-phase relationship in hurricane landfall activity between Central America and the eastern Caribbean and U.S. East coast, suggesting that shifting positions of the ITCZ (inter-tropical convergence zone) and the subtropical anticyclone and the resultant changes in steering patterns may be important factors affecting coastal hurricane risks in the western Atlantic.
Air mass circulations in the Intra-Americas Sea are dominated by the Low-Level Jet (IALLJ). A re-analysis of the Jet shows that it critically affects sea surface temperatures and moisture advection – important factors for hurricane strength and storm damage.
Geographical and demographic (2006) data show approximately 19 million people living within vulnerable areas less than 1 km from the coastline in the conterminous U.S. and 12 million people live within three-meter elevation along the coast.
Outreach
¿Cuánta gente vive en las zonas costeras vulnerables de EE. UU.?
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Bajar PDF en inglés
¿Un futuro más cálido con huracanes más intensos?
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Project Investigators
Kam-biu Liu – kliu1@lsu.edu
Louisiana State University, Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences (EE.UU.)
Co-Investigators
Nina Lam (Louisiana State University, EE.UU.), Amy Frappier (Skidmore College, EE.UU.), Claudia Mora (University of New Mexico, EE.UU.), Jeff Donnelly (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, EE.UU.), Tom Webb III (Brown University, EE.UU.), Anne Cohen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, EE.UU.), Sam Bentley (Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canadá), Matthew Peros (University of Ottawa, Canadá), Joe Desloges (University of Toronto, Canadá), Jorge Sanchez-Sesma (IMTA, México), Jorge Amador (University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica), Eric Alfaro (University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica)
Project web site
PDF in Spanish PDF in English Updated 5/2013
Students
Adolfo Quesada,grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Alberto Salazar, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Alicia Umaña, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Amit Kulkarni, doctorado, Louisiana State University.
Andre Govinda Sthal, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Andrea Hawkes, Post doctorado, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Canadá.
Audrey Wronski, grado, Skidmore College, EEUU.
Aurora Pinkey-Drobnis, grado, Skidmore College, EEUU.
Blanca Calderon Solera, grado, Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas, Costa Rica.
Changqing Huang, doctorado, Louisiana State University, China.
Claudia Taleno Leal, maestría, UNAM, Nicaragua.
Daniel Lewis, doctorado, University of Tennessee, EEUU.
Daniel Poleo, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Devyani Kar, maestría, Louisiana State University.
Elizabeth Johnson, grado, University of Tennessee, EEUU.
Elvia Nicaragua Nicaragua, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Erick Rivera, maestría, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Estefanía Jiménez, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Fernan Saénz, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Hulbert Arenas, doctorado, Louisiana State University, Perú.
Ingrid L. Rivera Arrieta, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
James Naquin, grado, Louisiana State University, EEUU.
James Pyburn, maestría, Boston College, EEUU.
Julia Mathis, grado, University of Tennessee, EEUU.
Julia Mathis, grado, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canadá.
Katherine Boldt, grado, Dartmouth College, EEUU.
Katherine Hernández, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Kathryn Denommee, grado, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canadá.
Keenan Li, maestría, Louisiana State University, China.
Logan Brenner, grado, Skidmore College, EEUU.
Maria Crosby, maestría, Boston College, EEUU.
Mariam Briceño, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Maya Gomes, grado, Wesleyan University, EEUU.
Meaghan Baldwin, maestría, Boston College, EEUU.
Megan Smith, grado, University of Tennessee, EEUU.
Natalie Mora, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Octavio Cruz Enriquez, grado, Universidad Veracruzana, México.
Patricia Brito, maestría, Louisiana State University, Brasil.
Patrick Stoudt, grado, Louisiana State University, EEUU.
Paula Pérez Briceño, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Rodrigo Castillo Rodríguez, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Sam Zipper, grado, Pomona College, EEUU.
Silvia Mora, grado, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Terry McCloskey, Post doctorado, Louisiana State University, EEUU.
Tito Maldonado, maestría, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Tom Bianchette, doctorado, Louisiana State University, EEUU.
Valerie Schwartz, grado, Skidmore College, EEUU.
Whitney Kocis, doctorado, University of Tennessee, EEUU.
