Population transitions and temperature change in Minas Gerais, Brazil: a multidimensional approach

Published in Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População Vol. 32(3):461-488 
Authors

Barbieri, A.F., Guedes, G.R., Noronha, K., Queiroz, B.L., Domingues, E.P., Rigotti, J.I.R., Motta, G.P., Chein, F., Cortezzi, F., Confalonieri, U.E.C. and Souza, K.
Publication year 2015
DOI https://doi.org/10.1590/s0102-3098201500000028
Affiliations
  • Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte-MG, Brasil
  • Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora-MG, Brasil
  • Departamento de Geografia, Université Paris IV &ndash Sorbonne, Paris, França
  • Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brasil
  • Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (Cedeplar), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte-MG, Brasil 
IAI Program

CRN3
IAI Project CRN3036
Keywords
Climate change
Population vulnerability
Population transitions
Multidimensional index
Minas Gerais

Abstract

Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region's relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come.