Paleotempestology of the Caribbean region: a multi-proxy, multi-site study of the spatial and temporal variability of Caribbean hurricane activity (CRN 2050)

1) Research sites.
2) Google Earth image of Laguna Bailen, a coastal lagoon in Cuba cored for our paleotempestology study;
scale bar is 1 km (photo credit: M. Peros).
3) A sediment core taken from a coastal lagoon in Sian Kaan, Mexico,
containing a clastic layer probably deposited by a hurricane (photo credit: J. Donnelly)

Project information

This research continued in SGP-CRA 2050, with the same title

Executive summary Outreach Investigators Students

Executive summary

The pan-Caribbean region, which includes Central America, the Caribbean islands, and the U.S. Gulf coast, is one of the most hurricane-ridden regions of the world. In spite of the enormous damage they often inflict when making landfall, it is poorly understood how they form and why they chose certain pathways. This project analyzes the variability of Caribbean hurricane activity using paleotempestology, the study of past cyclones, by analyzing ‘proxy data’ – coastal lagoon sediments, isotopic records from stalagmites, tree-rings, and corals.

Goals
Produce proxy records of past hurricane activity in the Caribbean

Understand the climate mechanisms that affect Caribbean hurricane activity by analyzing and modeling historical hurricane records and modern climate data

Use past records to assess the risk of future hurricanes

First Results
A new coral-based proxy record of Atlantic sea surface temperatures for the period AD 1552-1991, the longest-ever established, shows that higher hurricane activity before 1550 and after 1750 coincides with warmer sea surfaces. When the Atlantic surface was cooler, there were fewer storms in the Caribbean.

Caribbean hurricane activity varies following climate patterns such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Proxy data and modeling reveal peaks in Atlantic hurricane activity during Medieval times (AD 900-1100) and again since 1980, explained by the prevalence of warmer sea surface temperatures and La Niña-like conditions.

Air mass circulations in the Intra-Americas Sea are dominated by the Low-Level Jet (IALLJ). A re-analysis of the Jet shows that it critically affects sea surface temperatures and moisture advection – important factors for hurricane strength and storm damage.

Geographical and demographic (2006) data shows approximately 19 million people living within vulnerable areas less than 1 km from the coast line in the conterminous U.S. and 12 million people live within three-meter elevation along the coast.

Outreach

Project investigators

Kam-biu Liu – kliu1@lsu.edu
Louisiana State University, Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences (EE.UU.)

Co-Investigators
Nina Lam (Louisiana State University, USA), Amy Frappier (Skidmore College, USA), Claudia Mora (University of New Mexico, USA), Jeff Donnelly (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA), Tom Webb III (Brown University, USA), Anne Cohen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA), Sam Bentley (Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada), Matthew Peros (University of Ottawa, Canada), Joe Desloges (University of Toronto, Canada), Jorge Sanchez-Sesma (IMTA, Mexico), Jorge Amador (University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica), Eric Alfaro (University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica)

(Updated 02/2010)
PDF File

Students

Adolfo Quesada,Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Alberto Salazar, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Alicia Umaña, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Amit Kulkarni, PHD, Louisiana State University.
Andre Govinda Sthal, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Andrea Hawkes, Post PHD, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Canada.
Audrey Wronski, Undergraduate, Skidmore College, USA.
Aurora Pinkey-Drobnis, Undergraduate, Skidmore College, USA.
Blanca Calderon Solera, Undergraduate, Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas, Costa Rica.
Changqing Huang, PHD, Louisiana State University, China.
Claudia Taleno Leal, Master, UNAM, Nicaragua.
Daniel Lewis, PHD, University of Tennessee, USA.
Daniel Poleo, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Devyani Kar, Master, Louisiana State University.
Elizabeth Johnson, Undergraduate, University of Tennessee, USA.
Elvia Nicaragua Nicaragua, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Erick Rivera, Master, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Estefanía Jiménez, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Fernan Saénz, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Hulbert Arenas, PHD, Louisiana State University, Peru.
Ingrid L. Rivera Arrieta, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
James Naquin, Undergraduate, Louisiana State University, USA.
James Pyburn, Master, Boston College, USA.
Julia Mathis, Undergraduate, University of Tennessee, USA.
Julia Mathis, Undergraduate, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada.
Katherine Boldt, Undergraduate, Dartmouth College, USA.
Katherine Hernández, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Kathryn Denommee, Undergraduate, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada.
Keenan Li, Master, Louisiana State University, China.
Logan Brenner, Undergraduate, Skidmore College, USA.
Maria Crosby, Master, Boston College, USA.
Mariam Briceño, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Maya Gomes, Undergraduate, Wesleyan University, USA.
Meaghan Baldwin, Master, Boston College, USA.
Megan Smith, Undergraduate, University of Tennessee, USA.
Natalie Mora, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Octavio Cruz Enriquez, Undergraduate, Universidad Veracruzana, Mexico.
Patricia Brito, Master, Louisiana State University, Brazil.
Patrick Stoudt, Undergraduate, Louisiana State University, USA.
Paula Pérez Briceño, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Rodrigo Castillo Rodríguez, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Sam Zipper, Undergraduate, Pomona College, USA.
Silvia Mora, Undergraduate, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Terry McCloskey, Post PHD, Louisiana State University, USA.
Tito Maldonado, Master, Universidad de Costa Rica, Costa Rica.
Tom Bianchette, PHD, Louisiana State University, USA.
Valerie Schwartz, Undergraduate, Skidmore College, USA.
Whitney Kocis, PHD, University of Tennessee, USA.